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Podrinje Janja vs Željezničar Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
10/8/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 12Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Podrinje Janja45%
×Draw27%
Željezničar Banja Luka28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podrinje Janja
1.38
Željezničar Banja Luka
1.02

Podrinje Janja creates 35% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 87 away

creates per match

Podrinje Janja
0.92
Željezničar Banja Luka
0.82

allows per match

Podrinje Janja
1.23
Željezničar Banja Luka
1.83

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par
Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Željezničar Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw
72%
Podrinje Janja or Željezničar Banja Luka
73%
Draw or Željezničar Banja Luka
55%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
21%
Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
75%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
40%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
16%
Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
64%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
27%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
62%
Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Željezničar Banja Luka away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.38

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 0.82 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more
45%
level
27%
Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
28%

Podrinje Janja at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Podrinje Janja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podrinje Janja vs Željezničar Banja Luka

Podrinje Janja beat Željezničar Banja Luka 2-0 in 1st League - RS on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Podrinje in Janja.