Željezničar Banja Luka 2–0 FK Romanija Pale

Željezničar Banja Luka

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FK Romanija Pale

5/18/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 32Stadion FK Željezničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka60%

×Draw22%

FK Romanija Pale18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Željezničar Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchFK Romanija Pale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.91

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.86

FK Romanija Pale

0.91

Željezničar Banja Luka creates 104% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 49 away

1.88

creates per match

0.80

1.01

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.88

FK Romanija Pale

0.80

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.01

FK Romanija Pale

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

FK Romanija Pale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw

82%

Željezničar Banja Luka or FK Romanija Pale

78%

Draw or FK Romanija Pale

40%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+

35%

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals

84%

Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals

55%

Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals

28%

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals

60%

FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals

23%

FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)

77%

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

FK Romanija Pale away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + FK Romanija Pale defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.86

FK Romanija Pale attack 0.80 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more

60%

level

22%

FK Romanija Pale scores more

18%

Željezničar Banja Luka at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Željezničar Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff