FK Romanija Pale 2–0 Željezničar Banja Luka

FK Romanija Pale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Željezničar Banja Luka

4/12/2025

1st League - RS · RS - 25Stadion FK Romanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FK Romanija Pale54%

×Draw25%

Željezničar Banja Luka21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Romanija PaleExpected goals in this matchŽeljezničar Banja Luka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.89

FK Romanija Pale

1.60

Željezničar Banja Luka

0.89

FK Romanija Pale creates 80% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 87 away

1.37

creates per match

0.82

0.96

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

FK Romanija Pale

1.37

Željezničar Banja Luka

0.82

allows per match

FK Romanija Pale

0.96

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Romanija Pale ↓

Željezničar Banja Luka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Romanija Pale or draw

79%

FK Romanija Pale or Željezničar Banja Luka

75%

Draw or Željezničar Banja Luka

46%

Winning margin

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+

29%

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals

80%

FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals

47%

FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals

22%

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals

59%

Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals

22%

Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)

72%

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Romanija Pale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 49 matches

Željezničar Banja Luka away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Romanija Pale attack 1.37 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 0.82 + FK Romanija Pale defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FK Romanija Pale scores more

54%

level

25%

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more

21%

FK Romanija Pale at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Romanija Pale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff