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Željezničar Banja Luka vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko — 1st League - RS 2019

Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
FT
2 – 0
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
9/7/20191st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 5Stadion FK Željezničar (Banja Luka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka71%
×Draw17%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Željezničar Banja Luka
2.49
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.94

Željezničar Banja Luka creates 165% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 21 away

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.88
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.86

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.01
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3.10

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par
FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw
88%
Željezničar Banja Luka or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
83%
Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
29%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
48%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
92%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
71%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
45%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
61%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
24%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
85%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.49

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
71%
level
17%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
12%

Željezničar Banja Luka at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Željezničar Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Željezničar Banja Luka 2–0 FK Jedinstvo Brcko

Željezničar Banja Luka beat FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2-0 in 1st League - RS on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Željezničar (Banja Luka).