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FK Jedinstvo Brcko vs Željezničar Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FT
1 – 2
Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
11/6/20191st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 14Stadion FK Jedinstvo (Brčko)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko42%
×Draw26%
Željezničar Banja Luka32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.44
Željezničar Banja Luka
1.21

FK Jedinstvo Brcko creates 19% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 87 away

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.05
Željezničar Banja Luka
0.82

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.59
Željezničar Banja Luka
1.83

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par
Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Željezničar Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw
68%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Željezničar Banja Luka
74%
Draw or Željezničar Banja Luka
58%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
20%
Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
76%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
42%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
18%
Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
70%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
34%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
57%
Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Željezničar Banja Luka away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 0.82 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
42%
level
26%
Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
32%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Jedinstvo Brcko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Jedinstvo Brcko vs Željezničar Banja Luka

Željezničar Banja Luka beat FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2-1 in 1st League - RS on November 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo (Brčko).