Željezničar Banja Luka 4–2 Drina Zvornik

Željezničar Banja Luka

FT

4 – 2

Drina Zvornik

3/23/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 21Stadion FK Željezničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka61%

×Draw22%

Drina Zvornik17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Željezničar Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchDrina Zvornik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.86

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.85

Drina Zvornik

0.86

Željezničar Banja Luka creates 115% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 96 away

1.88

creates per match

0.71

1.01

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.88

Drina Zvornik

0.71

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.01

Drina Zvornik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

Drina Zvornik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw

83%

Željezničar Banja Luka or Drina Zvornik

78%

Draw or Drina Zvornik

39%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+

35%

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals

84%

Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals

55%

Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals

28%

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

58%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

21%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)

78%

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more

61%

level

22%

Drina Zvornik scores more

17%

Željezničar Banja Luka at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Željezničar Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff