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Drina Zvornik vs Željezničar Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
11/30/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Drina Zvornik64%
×Draw22%
Željezničar Banja Luka15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drina Zvornik
1.88
Željezničar Banja Luka
0.77

Drina Zvornik creates 144% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 87 away

creates per match

Drina Zvornik
1.93
Željezničar Banja Luka
0.82

allows per match

Drina Zvornik
0.73
Željezničar Banja Luka
1.83

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par
Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

Željezničar Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw
85%
Drina Zvornik or Željezničar Banja Luka
78%
Draw or Željezničar Banja Luka
36%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
38%
Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
85%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
56%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
29%
Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
54%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
18%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
81%
Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

Željezničar Banja Luka away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 0.82 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more
64%
level
22%
Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
15%

Drina Zvornik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Drina Zvornik 2–1 Željezničar Banja Luka

Drina Zvornik beat Željezničar Banja Luka 2-1 in 1st League - RS on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Zvornik.