Železničar Pančevo 4–0 Radnik Surdulica

Železničar Pančevo

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Radnik Surdulica

Y. Pavlov 64'

M. Gašić 63' (OG)

S. Obradović 44'

D. Grgić 21'

5/13/2024

Super Liga · Relegation Round - 5Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Železničar Pančevo35%

×Draw28%

Radnik Surdulica38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar PančevoExpected goals in this matchRadnik Surdulica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.23

Železničar Pančevo

1.17

Radnik Surdulica

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.41

creates per match

1.33

1.13

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.41

Radnik Surdulica

1.33

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.13

Radnik Surdulica

0.93

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.39scores more

Radnik Surdulica-0.45scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Radnik Surdulica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw

62%

Železničar Pančevo or Radnik Surdulica

72%

Draw or Radnik Surdulica

65%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

14%

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

69%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

33%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

11%

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

71%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

35%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

48%

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.41 + Radnik Surdulica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.33 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more

35%

level

28%

Radnik Surdulica scores more

38%

Radnik Surdulica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Đorđević

Železničar Pančevo · M

8.3

Match Events

21'

D. Grgić↳ S. Jovanović

44'

S. Obradović↳ A. Đorđević

46'

A. Kadijević← B. Duronjić

63'

M. GašićOwn goal

64'

Y. Pavlov↳ S. Hajdin

67'

M. Vranjanin← B. Stojković

72'

B. Balaž← I. Lakićević

72'

M. Konatar← S. Hajdin

78'

V. Trifunović← Y. Pavlov

78'

A. Max← A. Đorđević

81'

L. Čumić← P. Kunić

81'

O. Cvetkovic← J. Anđelković

82'

N. Tomašević← M. Gašić

84'

M. Milikić← V. Stanković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŽelezničarRadnik

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots9

5Corners2

17Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots9

7On Target1

7Off Target6

5Blocked2

14Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

491Total Passes349

434Accurate Passes277

88%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Offsides2