Radnik Surdulica 1–2 Železničar Pančevo

Radnik Surdulica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Železničar Pančevo

M. Novakovic 72'

J. Jevremovic 88'

S. Petrov 48'

8/24/2025

Super Liga · Round 6EFBET Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Radnik Surdulica48%

×Draw26%

Železničar Pančevo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik SurdulicaExpected goals in this matchŽelezničar Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.03

Radnik Surdulica

1.51

Železničar Pančevo

1.03

Radnik Surdulica creates 47% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.60

creates per match

1.24

0.82

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.60

Železničar Pančevo

1.24

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica

0.82

Železničar Pančevo

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Železničar Pančevo-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Železničar Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw

74%

Radnik Surdulica or Železničar Pančevo

74%

Draw or Železničar Pančevo

52%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

24%

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

78%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

44%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

19%

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

64%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

28%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

65%

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.82 · 10 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.42 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.60 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.51

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.24 + Radnik Surdulica defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more

48%

level

26%

Železničar Pančevo scores more

26%

Radnik Surdulica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Jevremovic

Železničar Pančevo · M

7.6

Match Events

25'

Hristo Ivanov

46'

Mateja Gašić

46'

Nikola Đuričić

48'

S. Petrov↳ J. Milosavljevic

61'

H. Hajdarevic← U. Blagojevic

62'

U. Ilic← A. Lazarevic

62'

M. Novakovic← A. Pejovic

68'

J. Jevremovic← A. Kuljanin

68'

K. Karikari← S. Petrov

72'

M. Novakovic↳ V. Bogdanovic

73'

E. Pavlov← V. Bogdanovic

75'

Sylvester Jasper

88'

J. Jevremovic↳ K. Karikari

89'

Stefan Ranđelović

90'

D. Markocevic← D. Jovanovic

90+5'

S. Pirgic← S. Jasper

90+1'

S. Mitrovic← J. Milosavljevic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadnikŽelezničar

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots9

5Corners9

10Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots9

3On Target5

10Off Target3

3Blocked1

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

368Total Passes458

285Accurate Passes389

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs Železničar Pančevo

Železničar Pančevo beat Radnik Surdulica 2-1 in Super Liga on August 24, 2025.

Goals: S. Petrov (48'), M. Novakovic (72'), J. Jevremovic (88').

Železničar Pančevo controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at EFBET Stadion in Surdulica.

Radnik Surdulica vs Železničar Pančevo — Super Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs Železničar Pančevo