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Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki NIS — Super Liga 2026

Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
8/17/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 5Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Železničar Pančevo47%
×Draw26%
Radnicki NIS27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Železničar Pančevo
1.48
Radnicki NIS
1.04

Železničar Pančevo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 148 away

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.53
Radnicki NIS
1.01

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.08
Radnicki NIS
1.43

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par
Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Radnicki NIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw
73%
Železničar Pančevo or Radnicki NIS
74%
Draw or Radnicki NIS
53%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
24%
Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
77%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
43%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
19%
Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
65%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
28%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
64%
Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.43 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.53 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more
47%
level
26%
Radnicki NIS scores more
27%

Železničar Pančevo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki NIS

Železničar Pančevo beat Radnicki NIS 3-0 in Super Liga on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost.