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Radnicki NIS vs Železničar Pančevo — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
12/20/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 20Cair Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Radnicki NIS46%
×Draw26%
Železničar Pančevo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
1.52
Železničar Pančevo
1.13

Radnicki NIS creates 35% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 57 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.54
Železničar Pančevo
1.12

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.13
Železničar Pančevo
1.51

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Železničar Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
72%
Radnicki NIS or Železničar Pančevo
74%
Draw or Železničar Pančevo
54%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
23%
Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
78%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
45%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
20%
Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
68%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
31%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
62%
Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.12 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
46%
level
26%
Železničar Pančevo scores more
28%

Radnicki NIS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Radnicki NIS 1–0 Železničar Pančevo

Radnicki NIS beat Železničar Pančevo 1-0 in Super Liga on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Cair Stadium.