Železničar Pančevo 0–0 Napredak: Result & Stats

Železničar Pančevo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Napredak

8/4/2025

Super Liga · Round 3Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Železničar Pančevo52%

×Draw25%

Napredak23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar PančevoExpected goals in this matchNapredak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.96

Železničar Pančevo

1.59

Napredak

0.96

Železničar Pančevo creates 66% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 147 away

1.53

creates per match

0.84

1.08

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.53

Napredak

0.84

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.08

Napredak

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Napredak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Napredak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw

77%

Železničar Pančevo or Napredak

75%

Draw or Napredak

48%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

27%

Napredak wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

80%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

47%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

21%

Napredak 1+ goals

62%

Napredak 2+ goals

25%

Napredak 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

69%

Napredak (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Napredak away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.53 + Napredak defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Napredak attack 0.84 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more

52%

level

25%

Napredak scores more

23%

Železničar Pančevo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

N. Djuricic

Železničar Pančevo · D

7.9

Match Events

30'

F. Krstic← L. Zlicic

46'

S. Jasper← S. Cvetkovic

57'

J. Jevremovic← J. Milosavljevic

57'

A. Kuljanin← N. Jovanovic

58'

S. Petrov← D. Glavinic

70'

U. Ignjatovic← A. Majdevac

71'

D. Skocajic← M. Bubanj

83'

N. Bogdanovski← D. Cubra

83'

N. Marinkovic← S. Hajdin

90+3'

Branislav Knežević

90+6'

Uroš Ignjatović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŽelezničarNapredak

Overview

62%Possession38%

12Total Shots5

5Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots5

4On Target2

6Off Target2

2Blocked1

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

575Total Passes355

503Accurate Passes276

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1