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Napredak vs Železničar Pančevo — Super Liga 2026

Napredak
Napredak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
12/7/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 18Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Napredak40%
×Draw27%
Železničar Pančevo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
1.31
Železničar Pančevo
1.17

Napredak creates 12% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 57 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.10
Železničar Pančevo
1.12

allows per match

Napredak
1.22
Železničar Pančevo
1.51

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

Železničar Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
67%
Napredak or Železničar Pančevo
73%
Draw or Železničar Pančevo
60%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
18%
Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
73%
Napredak 2+ goals
38%
Napredak 3+ goals
14%
Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
69%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
33%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
55%
Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.22 · 142 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.12 + Napredak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Napredak scores more
40%
level
27%
Železničar Pančevo scores more
33%

Napredak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Napredak 2–1 Železničar Pančevo

Napredak beat Železničar Pančevo 2-1 in Super Liga on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Youth Stadium.