Železničar Pančevo 3–0 Mladost Novi Sad

Železničar Pančevo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mladost Novi Sad

9/22/2021

Prva Liga · Round 8Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Železničar Pančevo43%

×Draw29%

Mladost Novi Sad28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar PančevoExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.94

Železničar Pančevo

1.25

Mladost Novi Sad

0.94

Železničar Pančevo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

1.73

creates per match

0.98

0.89

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.73

Mladost Novi Sad

0.98

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo

0.89

Mladost Novi Sad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw

72%

Železničar Pančevo or Mladost Novi Sad

71%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

57%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

19%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

71%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

36%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

13%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

61%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

24%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

61%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 55 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.73 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Železničar Pančevo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more

43%

level

29%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

28%

Železničar Pančevo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff