Mladost Novi Sad 2–1 Železničar Pančevo

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Železničar Pančevo

3/3/2022

Prva Liga · Round 23Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad42%

×Draw28%

Železničar Pančevo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchŽelezničar Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.01

Mladost Novi Sad

1.26

Železničar Pančevo

1.01

Mladost Novi Sad creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 53 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

0.89

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

1.29

Železničar Pančevo

1.13

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

Železničar Pančevo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Železničar Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

70%

Mladost Novi Sad or Železničar Pančevo

72%

Draw or Železničar Pančevo

58%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

19%

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

72%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

36%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

13%

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

64%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

27%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

59%

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.13 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

42%

level

28%

Železničar Pančevo scores more

30%

Mladost Novi Sad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff