Železničar Pančevo 5–0 Mladost Lucani

Železničar Pančevo

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mladost Lucani

3/15/2026

Super Liga · Round 27Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Železničar Pančevo51%

×Draw26%

Mladost Lucani24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar PančevoExpected goals in this matchMladost Lucani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.97

Železničar Pančevo

1.55

Mladost Lucani

0.97

Železničar Pančevo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 147 away

1.53

creates per match

0.86

1.08

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.53

Mladost Lucani

0.86

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.08

Mladost Lucani

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Mladost Lucani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw

76%

Železničar Pančevo or Mladost Lucani

74%

Draw or Mladost Lucani

49%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

26%

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

79%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

46%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

20%

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

62%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

25%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

68%

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.53 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more

51%

level

26%

Mladost Lucani scores more

24%

Železničar Pančevo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff