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Mladost Lucani vs Železničar Pančevo — Super Liga 2026

Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
12/2/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 17Mladost Stadium Lučani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Mladost Lucani43%
×Draw26%
Železničar Pančevo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lucani
1.43
Železničar Pančevo
1.15

Mladost Lucani creates 24% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 57 away

creates per match

Mladost Lucani
1.34
Železničar Pančevo
1.12

allows per match

Mladost Lucani
1.17
Železničar Pančevo
1.51

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par
Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Železničar Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw
70%
Mladost Lucani or Železničar Pančevo
74%
Draw or Železničar Pančevo
57%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
21%
Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
76%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
42%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
17%
Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
68%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
32%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
59%
Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.12 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more
43%
level
26%
Železničar Pančevo scores more
30%

Mladost Lucani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Mladost Lucani 1–0 Železničar Pančevo

Mladost Lucani beat Železničar Pančevo 1-0 in Super Liga on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Mladost Stadium Lučani in Lučani.