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Železničar Pančevo vs FK Vozdovac — Super Liga 2026

Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
8/19/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 4Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Železničar Pančevo51%
×Draw25%
FK Vozdovac24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Železničar Pančevo
1.59
FK Vozdovac
0.99

Železničar Pančevo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 109 away

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.53
FK Vozdovac
0.89

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.08
FK Vozdovac
1.65

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par
FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

FK Vozdovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw
76%
Železničar Pančevo or FK Vozdovac
75%
Draw or FK Vozdovac
49%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
27%
FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
80%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
47%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
21%
FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
63%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
26%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
68%
FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.53 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more
51%
level
25%
FK Vozdovac scores more
24%

Železničar Pančevo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Železničar Pančevo 0–1 FK Vozdovac

FK Vozdovac beat Železničar Pančevo 1-0 in Super Liga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost in Pančevo.