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FK Vozdovac vs Železničar Pančevo — Super Liga 2026

FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
5/7/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

FK Vozdovac45%
×Draw26%
Železničar Pančevo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Vozdovac
1.48
Železničar Pančevo
1.14

FK Vozdovac creates 30% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 57 away

creates per match

FK Vozdovac
1.46
Železničar Pančevo
1.12

allows per match

FK Vozdovac
1.15
Železničar Pančevo
1.51

finishing

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par
Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Vozdovac ↓

Železničar Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FK Vozdovac or draw
71%
FK Vozdovac or Železničar Pančevo
74%
Draw or Železničar Pančevo
55%

Winning margin

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
22%
Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
77%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
43%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
19%
Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
68%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
32%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
61%
Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Vozdovac at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 107 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Vozdovac attack 1.46 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.12 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Vozdovac scores more
45%
level
26%
Železničar Pančevo scores more
29%

FK Vozdovac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Vozdovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Vozdovac vs Železničar Pančevo

Železničar Pančevo beat FK Vozdovac 3-2 in Super Liga on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Event Place in Beograd.