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Železničar Pančevo vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV — Super Liga 2026

Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
5/18/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Relegation Round - 6Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Železničar Pančevo49%
×Draw26%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Železničar Pančevo
1.53
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.02

Železničar Pančevo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 145 away

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.53
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
0.97

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.08
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.53

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw
75%
Železničar Pančevo or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
74%
Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
51%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
25%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
78%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
45%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
20%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
64%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
27%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
66%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.53 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.97 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more
49%
level
26%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
25%

Železničar Pančevo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Železničar Pančevo 3–0 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Železničar Pančevo beat FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3-0 in Super Liga on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost in Pančevo.