Železničar Pančevo 2–0 Dinamo Vranje

Železničar Pančevo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Vranje

4/12/2021

Prva Liga · Round 27Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Železničar Pančevo53%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Vranje21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar PančevoExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.89

Železničar Pančevo

1.56

Dinamo Vranje

0.89

Železničar Pančevo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

1.73

creates per match

0.88

0.89

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.73

Dinamo Vranje

0.88

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo

0.89

Dinamo Vranje

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw

79%

Železničar Pančevo or Dinamo Vranje

75%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

47%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

28%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

79%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

46%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

21%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

59%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

22%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

71%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 55 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.73 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.88 + Železničar Pančevo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more

53%

level

25%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

21%

Železničar Pančevo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff