Dinamo Vranje 3–1 Železničar Pančevo

Dinamo Vranje

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Železničar Pančevo

10/11/2020

Prva Liga · Round 10Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje40%

×Draw26%

Železničar Pančevo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchŽelezničar Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.23

Dinamo Vranje

1.36

Železničar Pančevo

1.23

Dinamo Vranje creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 53 away

1.50

creates per match

1.13

1.34

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

Železničar Pančevo

1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.34

Železničar Pančevo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Železničar Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

66%

Dinamo Vranje or Železničar Pančevo

74%

Draw or Železničar Pančevo

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

18%

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

16%

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

71%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

35%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

54%

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.13 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

40%

level

26%

Železničar Pančevo scores more

34%

Dinamo Vranje at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff