Železničar Lajkovac 1–1 Šumadija Aranđelovac

Železničar Lajkovac

FT

1 – 1

Šumadija Aranđelovac

10/18/2020

Srpska Liga - West · West - 12Stadion FK Železničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Železničar Lajkovac71%

×Draw18%

Šumadija Aranđelovac11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar LajkovacExpected goals in this matchŠumadija Aranđelovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.77

Železničar Lajkovac

2.25

Šumadija Aranđelovac

0.77

Železničar Lajkovac creates 192% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

1.56

creates per match

0.60

0.94

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Železničar Lajkovac

1.56

Šumadija Aranđelovac

0.60

allows per match

Železničar Lajkovac

0.94

Šumadija Aranđelovac

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Železničar Lajkovac+0.00on par

Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Lajkovac ↓

Šumadija Aranđelovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Železničar Lajkovac or draw

89%

Železničar Lajkovac or Šumadija Aranđelovac

82%

Draw or Šumadija Aranđelovac

29%

Winning margin

Železničar Lajkovac wins by 2+

47%

Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Železničar Lajkovac 1+ goals

89%

Železničar Lajkovac 2+ goals

65%

Železničar Lajkovac 3+ goals

39%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals

54%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals

18%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Železničar Lajkovac (draw refunded)

86%

Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Lajkovac at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Lajkovac attack 1.56 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.25

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.60 + Železničar Lajkovac defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Železničar Lajkovac scores more

71%

level

18%

Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more

11%

Železničar Lajkovac at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Železničar Lajkovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff