Šumadija Aranđelovac 2–1 Železničar Lajkovac

Šumadija Aranđelovac

FT

2 – 1

Železničar Lajkovac

5/8/2021

Srpska Liga - West · West - 29Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac31%

×Draw26%

Železničar Lajkovac43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Šumadija AranđelovacExpected goals in this matchŽelezničar Lajkovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.44

Šumadija Aranđelovac

1.18

Železničar Lajkovac

1.44

Železničar Lajkovac creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

0.86

creates per match

0.88

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac

0.86

Železničar Lajkovac

0.88

allows per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac

2.00

Železničar Lajkovac

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Železničar Lajkovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumadija Aranđelovac ↓

Železničar Lajkovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Šumadija Aranđelovac or draw

57%

Šumadija Aranđelovac or Železničar Lajkovac

74%

Draw or Železničar Lajkovac

69%

Winning margin

Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+

13%

Železničar Lajkovac wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals

69%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals

33%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals

12%

Železničar Lajkovac 1+ goals

76%

Železničar Lajkovac 2+ goals

42%

Železničar Lajkovac 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)

42%

Železničar Lajkovac (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumadija Aranđelovac at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Železničar Lajkovac away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.86 + Železničar Lajkovac defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Železničar Lajkovac attack 0.88 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more

31%

level

26%

Železničar Lajkovac scores more

43%

Železničar Lajkovac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Železničar Lajkovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff