Zeleznicar Inđija 1–4 Sloven Ruma: Result & Stats

Zeleznicar Inđija

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Sloven Ruma

11/2/2025

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 12Stadion Leje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija52%

×Draw23%

Sloven Ruma25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeleznicar InđijaExpected goals in this matchSloven Ruma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.23

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.86

Sloven Ruma

1.23

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

2.42

creates per match

1.57

0.89

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija

2.42

Sloven Ruma

1.57

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija

0.89

Sloven Ruma

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Sloven Ruma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw

75%

Zeleznicar Inđija or Sloven Ruma

77%

Draw or Sloven Ruma

48%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+

29%

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals

84%

Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals

55%

Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals

28%

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals

71%

Sloven Ruma 2+ goals

35%

Sloven Ruma 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)

67%

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Sloven Ruma away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Sloven Ruma defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sloven Ruma attack 1.57 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more

52%

level

23%

Sloven Ruma scores more

25%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff