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Sloven Ruma vs Zeleznicar Inđija — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
FT
2 – 1
Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
11/11/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Stadion Sloven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloven Ruma46%
×Draw26%
Zeleznicar Inđija28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloven Ruma
1.50
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.11

Sloven Ruma creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sloven Ruma
1.97
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.40

allows per match

Sloven Ruma
0.83
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.04

finishing

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par
Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloven Ruma ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sloven Ruma or draw
72%
Sloven Ruma or Zeleznicar Inđija
74%
Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija
54%

Winning margin

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
23%
Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
78%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
44%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
19%
Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
67%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
30%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
62%
Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloven Ruma at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloven Ruma attack 1.97 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + Sloven Ruma defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sloven Ruma scores more
46%
level
26%
Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
28%

Sloven Ruma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloven Ruma vs Zeleznicar Inđija

Sloven Ruma beat Zeleznicar Inđija 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sloven in Ruma.