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Zeleznicar Inđija vs Radnički Zrenjanin — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
FT
4 – 0
Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
9/16/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion Leje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija63%
×Draw20%
Radnički Zrenjanin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.10
Radnički Zrenjanin
0.99

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 112% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 87 away

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.42
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.08

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
0.89
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par
Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw
83%
Zeleznicar Inđija or Radnički Zrenjanin
80%
Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin
37%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
39%
Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
88%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
62%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
35%
Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
63%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
26%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
79%
Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.10

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
63%
level
20%
Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
17%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zeleznicar Inđija vs Radnički Zrenjanin

Zeleznicar Inđija beat Radnički Zrenjanin 4-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Leje in Inđija.