Radnički Zrenjanin 1–0 Zeleznicar Inđija

Radnički Zrenjanin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zeleznicar Inđija

5/31/2025

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion kod Skrobare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin39%

×Draw27%

Zeleznicar Inđija34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički ZrenjaninExpected goals in this matchZeleznicar Inđija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.23

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.33

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 45 away

1.62

creates per match

1.40

1.07

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.62

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.40

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.07

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw

66%

Radnički Zrenjanin or Zeleznicar Inđija

73%

Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija

61%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

18%

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

74%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

38%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

15%

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals

71%

Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals

35%

Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

53%

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

39%

level

27%

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more

34%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff