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Zeleznicar Inđija vs Naftagas — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Naftagas
Naftagas
3/28/2026Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija56%
×Draw22%
Naftagas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeleznicar Inđija
1.91
Naftagas
1.11

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 72% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.42
Naftagas
1.33

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
0.89
Naftagas
1.40

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par
Naftagas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Naftagas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw
78%
Zeleznicar Inđija or Naftagas
78%
Draw or Naftagas
44%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
32%
Naftagas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
85%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
57%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
30%
Naftagas 1+ goals
67%
Naftagas 2+ goals
30%
Naftagas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
72%
Naftagas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Naftagas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Naftagas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.91

Naftagas attack 1.33 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
56%
level
22%
Naftagas scores more
22%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zeleznicar Inđija vs Naftagas

Naftagas beat Zeleznicar Inđija 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 28, 2026.