Naftagas 2–4 Zeleznicar Inđija: Result & Stats

Naftagas

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Zeleznicar Inđija

3/29/2025

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Naftagas46%

×Draw26%

Zeleznicar Inđija28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftagasExpected goals in this matchZeleznicar Inđija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Naftagas

1.48

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.11

Naftagas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

1.92

creates per match

1.40

0.83

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Naftagas

1.92

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.40

allows per match

Naftagas

0.83

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw

72%

Naftagas or Zeleznicar Inđija

74%

Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija

54%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+

23%

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals

77%

Naftagas 2+ goals

43%

Naftagas 3+ goals

19%

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals

67%

Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals

30%

Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)

62%

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Naftagas scores more

46%

level

26%

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more

28%

Naftagas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff