Zeleznicar Inđija 0–1 Hajduk 1912 Kula

Zeleznicar Inđija

FT

0 – 1

Hajduk 1912 Kula

5/12/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 27Stadion Đačko igralište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija62%

×Draw21%

Hajduk 1912 Kula18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeleznicar InđijaExpected goals in this matchHajduk 1912 Kula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.03

Zeleznicar Inđija

2.09

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.03

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 103% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

2.42

creates per match

1.18

0.89

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija

2.42

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.18

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija

0.89

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw

82%

Zeleznicar Inđija or Hajduk 1912 Kula

79%

Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula

38%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+

38%

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals

88%

Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals

62%

Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals

34%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals

64%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals

28%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)

77%

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.09

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more

62%

level

21%

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more

18%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff