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Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Zeleznicar Inđija — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
FT
2 – 2
Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
10/28/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula37%
×Draw26%
Zeleznicar Inđija37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.33
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.61
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.40

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.28
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.04

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par
Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw
63%
Hajduk 1912 Kula or Zeleznicar Inđija
74%
Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija
63%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
16%
Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
74%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
38%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
15%
Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
74%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
39%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
50%
Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
37%
level
26%
Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
37%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Hajduk 1912 Kula 2–2 Zeleznicar Inđija

Hajduk 1912 Kula and Zeleznicar Inđija drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Milan Sredanović in Kula.