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Zeleznicar Inđija vs FK Becej — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
FT
3 – 2
FK Becej
FK Becej
4/27/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 25Stadion Đačko igralište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija69%
×Draw17%
FK Becej14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.46
FK Becej
1.02

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 141% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 88 away

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.42
FK Becej
1.16

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
0.89
FK Becej
2.49

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw
86%
Zeleznicar Inđija or FK Becej
83%
Draw or FK Becej
31%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
46%
FK Becej wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
91%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
70%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
44%
FK Becej 1+ goals
64%
FK Becej 2+ goals
27%
FK Becej 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
83%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.46

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
69%
level
17%
FK Becej scores more
14%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zeleznicar Inđija vs FK Becej

Zeleznicar Inđija beat FK Becej 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Đačko igralište in Novi Sad.