FK Becej 0–4 Zeleznicar Inđija: Result & Stats

FK Becej

FT

0 – 4

Zeleznicar Inđija

10/14/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FK Becej35%

×Draw25%

Zeleznicar Inđija40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK BecejExpected goals in this matchZeleznicar Inđija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.48

FK Becej

1.36

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 45 away

1.69

creates per match

1.40

1.56

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

FK Becej

1.69

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.40

allows per match

FK Becej

1.56

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw

60%

FK Becej or Zeleznicar Inđija

75%

Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija

65%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+

16%

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals

74%

FK Becej 2+ goals

39%

FK Becej 3+ goals

16%

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals

77%

Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals

43%

Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)

46%

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Becej scores more

35%

level

25%

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more

40%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff