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Zeleznicar Inđija vs Dinamo Pančevo — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
FT
0 – 0
Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
11/9/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion Leje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija60%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Pančevo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.01
Dinamo Pančevo
1.01

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 99% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.42
Dinamo Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
0.89
Dinamo Pančevo
1.60

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par
Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw
82%
Zeleznicar Inđija or Dinamo Pančevo
79%
Draw or Dinamo Pančevo
40%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
36%
Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
87%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
59%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
32%
Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
77%
Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
60%
level
21%
Dinamo Pančevo scores more
18%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Zeleznicar Inđija 0–0 Dinamo Pančevo

Zeleznicar Inđija and Dinamo Pančevo drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Leje in Inđija.