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Dinamo Pančevo vs Zeleznicar Inđija — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
1 – 3
Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
3/10/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo39%
×Draw26%
Zeleznicar Inđija35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.38
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.40

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.04

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
65%
Dinamo Pančevo or Zeleznicar Inđija
74%
Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
18%
Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
16%
Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
73%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
37%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
52%
Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
39%
level
26%
Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
35%

Dinamo Pančevo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 1–3 Zeleznicar Inđija

Zeleznicar Inđija beat Dinamo Pančevo 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.