Zeleznicar Inđija 2–1 Borac Šajkaš: Result & Stats

Zeleznicar Inđija

FT

2 – 1

Borac Šajkaš

4/13/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Stadion Đačko igralište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija63%

×Draw21%

Borac Šajkaš16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeleznicar InđijaExpected goals in this matchBorac Šajkaš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.91

Zeleznicar Inđija

2.00

Borac Šajkaš

0.91

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 120% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

2.42

creates per match

0.93

0.89

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija

2.42

Borac Šajkaš

0.93

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija

0.89

Borac Šajkaš

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Borac Šajkaš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw

84%

Zeleznicar Inđija or Borac Šajkaš

79%

Draw or Borac Šajkaš

37%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+

38%

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals

86%

Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals

59%

Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals

32%

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals

60%

Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals

23%

Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)

79%

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Borac Šajkaš away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Borac Šajkaš attack 0.93 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more

63%

level

21%

Borac Šajkaš scores more

16%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff