Zeleznicar Inđija 4–1 Backa: Result & Stats

Zeleznicar Inđija

FT

4 – 1

Backa

3/30/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 20Stadion Đačko igralište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija66%

×Draw20%

Backa14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeleznicar InđijaExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.83

Zeleznicar Inđija

2.06

Backa

0.83

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 148% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 37 away

2.42

creates per match

0.78

0.89

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija

2.42

Backa

0.78

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija

0.89

Backa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw

86%

Zeleznicar Inđija or Backa

80%

Draw or Backa

34%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+

41%

Backa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals

87%

Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals

61%

Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals

34%

Backa 1+ goals

56%

Backa 2+ goals

20%

Backa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)

82%

Backa (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.06

Backa attack 0.78 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more

66%

level

20%

Backa scores more

14%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff