Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Backa vs Zeleznicar Inđija — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Backa
Backa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
9/20/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 6Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa28%
×Draw28%
Zeleznicar Inđija44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.00
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.33

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 45 away

creates per match

Backa
0.97
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.40

allows per match

Backa
1.27
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.04

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Backa or draw
56%
Backa or Zeleznicar Inđija
72%
Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija
72%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
10%
Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
63%
Backa 2+ goals
26%
Backa 3+ goals
8%
Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
74%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
38%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
39%
Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + Backa defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Backa scores more
28%
level
28%
Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
44%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Backa vs Zeleznicar Inđija

Zeleznicar Inđija beat Backa 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.