Zebau Bad Ischl 3–2 Union St. Florian

Zebau Bad Ischl

FT

3 – 2

Union St. Florian

10/10/2020

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 10ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zebau Bad Ischl52%

×Draw21%

Union St. Florian27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zebau Bad IschlExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Florian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.48

Zebau Bad Ischl

2.12

Union St. Florian

1.48

Zebau Bad Ischl creates 43% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

2.24

creates per match

1.10

1.86

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Zebau Bad Ischl

2.24

Union St. Florian

1.10

allows per match

Zebau Bad Ischl

1.86

Union St. Florian

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zebau Bad Ischl ↓

Union St. Florian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Zebau Bad Ischl or draw

73%

Zebau Bad Ischl or Union St. Florian

79%

Draw or Union St. Florian

48%

Winning margin

Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+

31%

Union St. Florian wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals

88%

Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals

62%

Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals

35%

Union St. Florian 1+ goals

77%

Union St. Florian 2+ goals

43%

Union St. Florian 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)

66%

Union St. Florian (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zebau Bad Ischl at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.24 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zebau Bad Ischl scores more

52%

level

21%

Union St. Florian scores more

27%

Zebau Bad Ischl at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zebau Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff