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Union St. Florian vs Zebau Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
CANC
15:00
Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
5/8/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 25Sportpark St. Florian

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Union St. Florian44%
×Draw22%
Zebau Bad Ischl35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Florian
1.97
Zebau Bad Ischl
1.74

Union St. Florian creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

Union St. Florian
1.40
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.14

allows per match

Union St. Florian
1.33
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.55

finishing

Union St. Florian+0.00on par
Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Florian ↓

Zebau Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Union St. Florian or draw
65%
Union St. Florian or Zebau Bad Ischl
78%
Draw or Zebau Bad Ischl
56%

Winning margin

Union St. Florian wins by 2+
24%
Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Union St. Florian 1+ goals
86%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
58%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
31%
Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
82%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
52%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
56%
Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Florian at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Zebau Bad Ischl away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Florian attack 1.40 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.97

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.14 + Union St. Florian defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union St. Florian scores more
44%
level
22%
Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
35%

Union St. Florian at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union St. Florian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union St. Florian vs Zebau Bad Ischl — Match Preview

Union St. Florian face Zebau Bad Ischl on May 8, 2021 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Union St. Florian host Zebau Bad Ischl at Sportpark St. Florian.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.