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Zebau Bad Ischl vs Union Perg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
CANC
00:00
Union Perg
Union Perg
4/18/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 22ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zebau Bad Ischl49%
×Draw21%
Union Perg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zebau Bad Ischl
2.06
Union Perg
1.56

Zebau Bad Ischl creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 87 away

creates per match

Zebau Bad Ischl
2.24
Union Perg
1.25

allows per match

Zebau Bad Ischl
1.86
Union Perg
1.89

finishing

Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par
Union Perg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zebau Bad Ischl ↓

Union Perg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Zebau Bad Ischl or draw
71%
Zebau Bad Ischl or Union Perg
79%
Draw or Union Perg
51%

Winning margin

Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
28%
Union Perg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
87%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
61%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
34%
Union Perg 1+ goals
79%
Union Perg 2+ goals
46%
Union Perg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
63%
Union Perg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zebau Bad Ischl at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

Union Perg away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.89 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.24 + Union Perg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.06

Union Perg attack 1.25 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
49%
level
21%
Union Perg scores more
29%

Zebau Bad Ischl at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zebau Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zebau Bad Ischl host Union Perg

April 18, 2020: Zebau Bad Ischl take on Union Perg in Landesliga - Oberosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zebau Bad Ischl host Union Perg at ÖKO-BOX Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.