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Union Perg vs Zebau Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Perg
Union Perg
CANC
13:00
Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
11/14/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 15abd-Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Union Perg47%
×Draw21%
Zebau Bad Ischl32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Perg
2.11
Zebau Bad Ischl
1.70

Union Perg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 29 away

creates per match

Union Perg
1.67
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.14

allows per match

Union Perg
1.26
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.55

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par
Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

Zebau Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw
68%
Union Perg or Zebau Bad Ischl
79%
Draw or Zebau Bad Ischl
53%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+
27%
Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals
88%
Union Perg 2+ goals
62%
Union Perg 3+ goals
35%
Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
82%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
51%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)
60%
Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

Zebau Bad Ischl away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.11

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.14 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Perg scores more
47%
level
21%
Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
32%

Union Perg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Union Perg host Zebau Bad Ischl

November 14, 2020: Union Perg take on Zebau Bad Ischl in Landesliga - Oberosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Union Perg host Zebau Bad Ischl at abd-Arena Perg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.