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Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Zbrojovka Brno II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
CANC
15:30
Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
6/27/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 26Stadion SK Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou27%
×Draw23%
Zbrojovka Brno II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.26
Zbrojovka Brno II
1.78

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.59
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.49

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.07
Zbrojovka Brno II
0.92

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Zbrojovka Brno II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw
50%
Ždírec nad Doubravou or Zbrojovka Brno II
77%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno II
73%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
11%
Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
72%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
36%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
13%
Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
83%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
53%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
35%
Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Zbrojovka Brno II away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.49 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
27%
level
23%
Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
50%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Zbrojovka Brno II — Match Preview

Ždírec nad Doubravou face Zbrojovka Brno II on June 27, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ždírec nad Doubravou host Zbrojovka Brno II at Stadion SK Tatran.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.