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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
8/13/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 2Stadion pod Pekařkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II67%
×Draw19%
Ždírec nad Doubravou13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.12
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.81

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 162% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 81 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.46
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.95

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
0.67
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.77

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par
Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw
87%
Zbrojovka Brno II or Ždírec nad Doubravou
81%
Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou
33%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
43%
Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
88%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
62%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
35%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
56%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
19%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
84%
Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.46 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.12

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.95 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
67%
level
19%
Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
13%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbrojovka Brno II vs Ždírec nad Doubravou

Zbrojovka Brno II beat Ždírec nad Doubravou 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion pod Pekařkou in Brno.