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Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Velké Meziříčí — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
10/19/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 12Stadion SK Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou50%
×Draw24%
Velké Meziříčí26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.75
Velké Meziříčí
1.20

Ždírec nad Doubravou creates 46% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.59
Velké Meziříčí
1.33

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.07
Velké Meziříčí
1.91

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par
Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Velké Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw
74%
Ždírec nad Doubravou or Velké Meziříčí
76%
Draw or Velké Meziříčí
50%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
27%
Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
83%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
52%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
25%
Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
70%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
34%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
66%
Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.33 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
50%
level
24%
Velké Meziříčí scores more
26%

Ždírec nad Doubravou at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ždírec nad Doubravou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Ždírec nad Doubravou 2–1 Velké Meziříčí

Ždírec nad Doubravou beat Velké Meziříčí 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SK Tatran in Ždírec nad Doubravou.