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Velké Meziříčí vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
3/10/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 16UT Valašské Meziřičí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Velké Meziříčí44%
×Draw24%
Ždírec nad Doubravou32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Meziříčí
1.60
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.32

Velké Meziříčí creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.44
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.95

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.69
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.77

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par
Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw
68%
Velké Meziříčí or Ždírec nad Doubravou
76%
Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou
56%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
22%
Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
80%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
47%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
22%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
73%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
38%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
58%
Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.44 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.95 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more
44%
level
24%
Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
32%

Velké Meziříčí at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velké Meziříčí vs Ždírec nad Doubravou

Ždírec nad Doubravou beat Velké Meziříčí 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at UT Valašské Meziřičí in Valašské Meziříčí.