Ždírec nad Doubravou 0–1 Sokol Lanžhot

Ždírec nad Doubravou

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sokol Lanžhot

5/18/2025

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 26Stadion SK Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou36%

×Draw26%

Sokol Lanžhot39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ždírec nad DoubravouExpected goals in this matchSokol Lanžhot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.41

Ždírec nad Doubravou

1.35

Sokol Lanžhot

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 67 away

1.59

creates per match

1.75

1.07

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou

1.59

Sokol Lanžhot

1.75

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou

1.07

Sokol Lanžhot

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Sokol Lanžhot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw

61%

Ždírec nad Doubravou or Sokol Lanžhot

74%

Draw or Sokol Lanžhot

64%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+

16%

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals

74%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals

39%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals

15%

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals

76%

Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals

41%

Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)

48%

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Sokol Lanžhot away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sokol Lanžhot attack 1.75 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more

36%

level

26%

Sokol Lanžhot scores more

39%

Sokol Lanžhot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Sokol Lanžhot

Sokol Lanžhot beat Ždírec nad Doubravou 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SK Tatran in Ždírec nad Doubravou.

Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Sokol Lanžhot — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Sokol Lanžhot