Sokol Lanžhot 3–1 Ždírec nad Doubravou

Sokol Lanžhot

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ždírec nad Doubravou

11/11/2023

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 15Na Šlajsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sokol Lanžhot65%

×Draw20%

Ždírec nad Doubravou15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol LanžhotExpected goals in this matchŽdírec nad Doubravou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.90

Sokol Lanžhot

2.09

Ždírec nad Doubravou

0.90

Sokol Lanžhot creates 132% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 81 away

2.42

creates per match

0.95

0.85

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Sokol Lanžhot

2.42

Ždírec nad Doubravou

0.95

allows per match

Sokol Lanžhot

0.85

Ždírec nad Doubravou

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lanžhot ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sokol Lanžhot or draw

85%

Sokol Lanžhot or Ždírec nad Doubravou

80%

Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou

35%

Winning margin

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+

40%

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals

88%

Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals

62%

Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals

34%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals

59%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals

23%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)

81%

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lanžhot at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lanžhot attack 2.42 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.09

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.95 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sokol Lanžhot scores more

65%

level

20%

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more

15%

Sokol Lanžhot at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff