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Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Kuřim — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kuřim
Kuřim
8/3/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 1Stadion Bouchalky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou33%
×Draw26%
Kuřim41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.23
Kuřim
1.41

Kuřim creates 15% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.59
Kuřim
1.73

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.09
Kuřim
0.87

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par
Kuřim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Kuřim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw
59%
Ždírec nad Doubravou or Kuřim
74%
Draw or Kuřim
67%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
14%
Kuřim wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
71%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
35%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
13%
Kuřim 1+ goals
76%
Kuřim 2+ goals
41%
Kuřim 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
44%
Kuřim (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 82 matches

Kuřim away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Kuřim defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kuřim attack 1.73 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
33%
level
26%
Kuřim scores more
41%

Kuřim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kuřim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Kuřim

Ždírec nad Doubravou and Kuřim drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bouchalky in Žďár nad Sázavou.